Lebanese enigmas

  Michel Nehme

Einstein once noted that problems cannot be solved with the same mentality that created them. This is the state of affairs now prevailing in the Middle East. More conflict and less cooperation are still predominant in the democracy-resistant Arab world. Yet this stubborn mentality is challenged by the changing material and organizational conditions that stem from the trends of both regionalization and globalization.

The big question is how to perceive the Middle East in the forthcoming decade. Today, the world's biggest issues are global and governments are losing relevance because economic interdependence, balance of power standards, technological issues, financial stability and demographic and cultural realities disregard borders and idiosyncratic sensitivities.

The challenges in the Middle East are multifaceted. Here, from a Lebanese perspective, we deal with five of them.

First, sectarian divisions are reflective of the entire Middle East arena. This time they are taking a form that is unprecedented in Lebanon. It replicates the division that prevails in Iraq and the Gulf at large between the two opposing major branches of Islam, Sunni and Shi'ite. The tension between these two sectarian communities is indeed quite sharp in Lebanon. The old Arab-Israel balance of power is no longer the same. Iran as a Shi'ite Islamic power is very much at the core of the new multi-polar Middle Eastern system; Turkey is a de-facto contender with the potential to be a major player in the near future, supported by the US.

In an effort to shield itself from potential Arab threats against it and to avoid a replay of the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, Iran has resorted to pan-Islamic rhetoric and has been outbidding all Arab regimes in anti-Israeli speechmaking, including provocative stances on the Holocaust, just to play the Arabs against Israel and keep them busy on that front. Tehran is also building up a protective shield in the form of a network of alliances that goes beyond the Shi'ite realm. Thus, Hizballah is keen on not appearing as a purely sectarian force. It has an alliance with Michel Aoun, who is a major force among Lebanese Christians, and is trying to cozy up to certain Sunni forces, including Lebanese Sunni Islamic fundamentalists and any other allies it can find outside the Shi'ite community.

Then there is American policy in the region. The United States continues to wield an iron fist to pressure Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions and to encourage continued dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The capture of Baghdad by the Shi'ites and the ethnic cleansing of most Sunnis from it have set the stage for a big Sunni-Shi'ite battle in Iraq that could potentially lead to all-out sectarian hostilities in the region. Yet calm is absolutely essential to Gulf security and to American energy security; Saudi Arabia and Iran must not be drawn into a devastating Sunni-Shi'ite proxy war. Maintaining close contact with each other and with Iraqis of the other sects is the best way for them to avoid a replay of the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.

The US government will also continue to be serious about the threat of terrorism. Congress will probably expand funding for the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. Its researchers analyze the writings and activities of the Salafeyien Jihadeyien and project how best to combat them in order to undermine the threat of al-Qaeda, which is likely to remain with us for some time in the future.

With the election of a new American president, the US is bound to find itself mediating the Israeli siege of Gaza. That siege will continue to be used as an element of pressure until a breakthrough on the Syrian track is realized. Learning from the past and projecting to the future on the Palestinian track, it is one of the multiple ironies of the Middle East that when the US pushes hard on one door, another one opens instead. Meanwhile, sponsoring Israeli-Syrian negotiations does not require the US to drop any of its other concerns, from maintaining the independence of Lebanon to pressing Damascus to end its human rights abuses and sponsorship of terrorist organizations.

Yet unless something drastic happens, Syria will cling to its involvement in Lebanon. This is also one of the problems projected by Hizballah's strategy: its links with Syria. Indeed, most of the Lebanese opposition is pro-Syrian. One of the critical points for the future is the ability of Syria and its allies to block the international tribunal on Rafiq Hariri's assassination (Hariri was killed on February 14, 2005 by a car bomb for which the Syrian security services have been implicated) that Washington is pushing through the UN in order to use as a tool to exert pressure on Damascus.

Suffice it to mention as a concluding statement that despite or alongside its current despair, the Middle East stands right at the center of the developing world. Threats such as terrorists, insurgents and radical Islamists in the Middle East are the tip of an iceberg concealing a much deeper and wider movement for world change. They merit the attention of the major western powers.- Published 6/11/2008 © bitterlemons-international.org

Prof. Michel Nehme is director of University International Affairs, Notre Dame University, Lebanon.