Regional political effects, inspiration to opposition forces

  Riad Kahwaji

The Arab world has been closely watching events unfold in Iran with a mixture of shock, interest and some anxiety. Most of the Arab media has directly or indirectly supported public demonstrations by opposition supporters in Iran. The media in general have portrayed the struggle in Iran as one between moderate forces that aspire to cancel the results of the elections, which they claim to be fraudulent, and the hard-line forces led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has endorsed President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad and asked Iranians to accept the results and quit the demonstrations.

For their part, Arab leaders and officials have opted to remain quiet and maintain that this is a domestic Iranian affair. In some cases, the media in the Arab world have adopted the perspective of the host government based on the latter's relations with Ahmadinezhad. Thus, while the Doha-based Al-Jazeera news channel has shown more sympathy toward the regime in Tehran, other media outlets in the Arab Gulf states like the Dubai-based and Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya news channel have tilted toward the opposition camp led by Mir Hossein Mousavi and former presidents Mohammed Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani.

However the conflict ends in Iran, the perceived image of the Islamic Republic has changed in the region. The mere fact that Iran's Supreme Leader is now openly challenged by prominent Iranian figures and a large section of the people has been a shock to many Arabs and an indication that Tehran could be on the verge of a major change of regime or change within the regime. Even if Ahmadinezhad holds onto power as a result of harsh measures taken by the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militias, the legitimacy of the Islamic regime has become questionable and its infallible divine image undermined. Iran's main allies, like Syria, Hizballah and Hamas, are most likely reconsidering the situation and readying themselves for the possibility of a major shift within the Iranian regime or even its collapse.

The high moral ground on which the Supreme Leader is placed by many Shi'ites in the Arab world has also likely been shaken by the recent events. This opens the way for prominent Shi'ite leaders who have disputed the welayat al-faqih theory and feel it has stripped them of their influence domestically. As for countries that were readying themselves to better engage Iran in political discussion, like Washington and its allies, they too will have to consider the new realities unveiled since election day.

Alongside these near-term consequences for Iran and its relations with the world, the Iranian uprising has also left a long-term impact on some states in the region. The Iranian riots must have grabbed the attention of active opposition movements in countries like Syria, Egypt and Bahrain. They have likely learned valuable lessons about the use of cyberspace in organizing and rallying support domestically and internationally. The age of internet-driven revolutions has reached the Middle East and will probably be around effectively for a while.

The most significant factor is the efficient use of new media technologies like the internet, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and cellular functions like SMS and Bluetooth in mobilizing the masses, communicating with the outside world and denying the government the capability to control the flow of information within as well as to and from the country. Although this was not the first time the new media technology was used in public demonstrations in the region, as was the case in recent incidents in Egypt, the Iranian experience has revealed new techniques that regional opposition forces could use in future anti-government actions.

One should expect to see future public rallies in authoritarian countries better covered internationally via these new technologies. Modern information, communication and media technologies have literally stripped remaining dictatorships of their monopoly on the flow of information and could eventually play a major role in their downfall.

Another cause of concern to some Arab observers is the possibility of the Iranian government heightening tensions in the Middle East region in order to divert attention from the domestic scene to the outside. Friction with the West would also serve the current strategy of blaming all the unrest on foreign intervention. The surprise announcement of military maneuvers by Iranian air force and navy units in the Gulf area was mostly seen as a way to shift both domestic and international public attention to the question of regional security. Rising threat perceptions in Tehran regarding the domestic as well as the regional scene could drive the regime to make hasty decisions or miscalculations that could conceivably spark a regional military confrontation.

Authoritarian regimes are most dangerous and adventurous when their survival is threatened and they feel they have little to lose. Hence caution is the word.- Published 25/6/2009 © bitterlemons-international.org

Riad Kahwaji is CEO of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis - INEGMA, in Dubai.