Amman maintains calculated stance

  Rana Sabbagh-Gargour

Two weeks into Iran's post-election intifada, official Jordan is maintaining a low profile to make sure Amman stands on the right side of history. In a situation so delicate, King Abdullah II, who has long viewed Iran as a main source of instability in the region, prefers to keep Jordan out of the momentous internal Iranian drama that has been unfolding since the June 12 vote.

Taking its cue from the United States, its key western ally, Amman will not acknowledge the results of the heavily contested vote, which brought back hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad. But unlike Washington, Amman is also not ready to condemn the heavy security crackdown on pro-reform supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi, who is challenging the election result.

For now, Jordan's calculated position is sparing the government criticism from the influential Islamic-led opposition, which says it backs "Ahmadinezhad's Iran". The opposition feels indebted to him mostly because he backs its Palestinian ally, Hamas, now controlling the Gaza Strip and challenging the legitimacy of the Jordanian-backed Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank.

Political ties between Amman and Tehran have ebbed and flowed since Jordan sided with Iraq in the 1980-1988 war with Iran. Amman has often accused Tehran of attempts to destabilize the kingdom by supporting militant groups to sabotage Amman's 1994 peace treaty with Israel or inciting hatred against the regime.

Iranian leaders, meanwhile, have not forgiven the king for warning, shortly before the start of the US-led war on Iraq in 2003, that the collapse of Saddam Hussein's Sunni-controlled regime would give rise to an Iranian-led "Shi'ite crescent" sphere of influence, stretching from Iran to Iraq, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.

Jordanian officials, like representatives of the relatively moderate, pro-western governments in Ramallah, Cairo, Beirut, Riyadh and elsewhere, fear any overtures of support to Mousavi might undermine the very forces they and the US would like to see strengthened. In private, however, they say they would have liked to see him replace Ahmadinezhad, who will have difficulty engaging with President Obama or changing his childish political rhetoric that appeals to the lowest common denominator on the Arab street.

Jordanian media, like many politicians, remain divided over the intentions of Mr. Mousavi, a former prime minister, and the powerful counter-elite behind him. Journalists are asking if it is better to reform the system or overthrow it. Many in Jordan had hoped that a weakened, if not changed, regime led by Mousavi, the "soft" alternative to Ahmadinezhad, would gradually yield an easier approach to Middle East peace, thus softening the positions of Iran's regional strategic allies, Syria, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine and Hizballah in Lebanon. This in turn would have boosted Obama's multi-track approach for comprehensive peace in the region: the creation of an independent Palestinian state living side by side with Israel, closing the Iraq file and attaining a peaceful resolution to Iran's stand-off with the West over its nuclear power.

It remains to be seen if the upheaval will be a turning point for Iran, destabilizing the revolutionary establishment enough in favor of moderation and pluralism to bring long-term stability at home and across the region, and if new, internationally supervised presidential elections would tip the balance in favor of Mousavi. Perhaps the ongoing bloody confrontations between the state security apparatus and pro-democracy protestors will fizzle out after the Guardian Council, the country's top legislative body, said earlier this week there were no signs of serious electoral fraud in the ballot despite conceding that in 50 cities more than 100 per cent of the electorate was officially recorded as turning out to vote.

In the latter case, the leadership that forcefully quelled street unrest after stealing a "rigged" election will continue to push its aggressive domestic and foreign agenda even if it is not recognized by much of the international community, as happened in some East European countries. A weakened regime, however, could become nervous and offensive to cover up for perceived weakness, instigating tension with Israel, which is unhappy with Obama's Middle East peace drive and would not mind derailing it. Such a crisis would force Washington to focus on Iran rather than the Arab-Israel conflict.

For now, Jordanian officials, politicians and security analysts agree that Iran's election has exposed deep divisions within Iran, which they welcome. The regime in Tehran now needs to consolidate its grip on power through compromise and consensus building. Nearly half of the Iranian population will continue to push for reform, including separating politics from religion. This could weaken the popular appeal of hardline Muslim parties challenging the region's despotic rulers, who remain concerned that their constituencies would follow the Iranian example and demand for reforms.

But when it comes to strategic foreign policy, there appears to be consensus between Ahmadinezhad and Mousavi on the need to continue developing Iran's nuclear program to ensure a greater say in a changing regional and global order. The difference between them would not go beyond tactics and tone, at least in the medium term.

"What is happening in Iran is the clearest indication that the revolution is aging, and rather fast because it failed to modernize itself over the past 30 years," said a senior Jordanian politician recently. "There are new dynamics in favor of modernization. But these dynamics are being exaggerated by most western media and the enemies of Ahmadinezhad".

Such exaggeration even touches on what Mousavi could achieve, whether he continues to lead the opposition or is elected under a new vote.

"Mousavi will push for steps to ensure political pluralism and economic reform, but he will not introduce drastic changes to reform the Islamic regime beyond recognition like Mikhail Gorbachev's perestroika did to the USSR" in the late 1980s. "He has no choice but to keep building the Iranian empire, which is on the rise, while introducing gradual change," the senior official said.

"He will dismantle neither the Islamic state nor its nuclear program, and he will not reduce Iranian influence in the region by curbing Tehran's role in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine. He needs to use all these cards to make Tehran's voice heard in the region and abroad."- Published 25/6/2009 © bitterlemons-international.org

Rana Sabbagh-Gargour, an independent journalist, is former editor of the Jordan Times.