Shadow of a new cold war

  Ali Asghar Kazemi

A new cold war is appearing on the horizon of international relations. Its symptoms and impact are different from the old cold war. Although as we shall see the new cold war is essentially ideological in nature, it is not entirely a consequence of Russia's drive to regain its superpower status and its deteriorating relations with the United States

Unlike the defunct cold war between East and West, communism and capitalism (essentially identified by two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union), the new cold war involves a rather strange hostility between competing forces with unequal powers and rather ambiguous objectives. The parties to this conflict are the West on the one hand and "entities" that do not necessarily associate themselves with any particular nation-state on the other. The situation reached critical mass after 9/11, has already claimed the lives of many innocent people and seems gradually to be getting out of control.

The resurgence of Islamic fundamentalism in the Middle East, preaching total devotion, submission to the will of God and negation of earthly materialism, is indeed a crucial development of our time. It is capable of destabilizing the international system and world order. The demand for social, economic and political change and the expectation of a world different from the existing one have caused people to look for alternatives. Religion is re-emerging as a source for hope, inspiration and salvation. At the same time, a trend toward harsh fundamentalism is clearly observable. People are losing faith in their political system and politicians; they are seeking refuge in religion in pursuit of their cause.

The new cold war is a bizarre conflict in which the hostile parties do not necessarily engage in a classic face-to-face confrontation and feel no obligation to abide by the rules of war, humanitarian laws and norms. Their main goal is to change the prevailing norms and status quo in the current world order. The Middle East is the main arena of this confrontation; there the rival parties seem to have no intention of ceasing hostilities.

While China seems too busy to enter into this conflict because of its economic miracle, Russia's resurgence as a superpower and its recent tensions with the United States could be a source of concern for the US. However, Washington does not seem prepared to consider Russia a party to the new cold war. Notwithstanding a number of mutual discontents, including NATO's extension to the east and the proposed US missile defense system in Eastern Europe that is supposedly aimed at the perceived threat from Iran's nuclear ambitions, the United States still considers Russia a strategic partner not to be alienated from world affairs. This is mainly due to a geopolitical perception that an antagonistic Russia could be detrimental to US interests around the world, especially in the Middle East.

In fact, Russia as heir to the main elements of Soviet power is now capable of checking US power and impeding it from achieving its global strategic aims. It took the Russians almost two decades to recover from the paralyzing shock of the ill-fated disintegration of the Soviet empire. Now Russia's economic recovery and its attempt to re-emerge as a superpower permit it to tackle US unilateralism in the world. Yet Moscow is not yet prepared to engage in global competition with the United States.

Viewed from a different angle, Russia could potentially be used as a shield by some states that are known as defiant actors in current world politics and that earnestly insist on a redefinition of world order from their own perspective. They would like to see an escalation in US-Russian tensions with the hope of containing unilateral American expansionist policies. In their view, only Russia can match US power and impede its evil strategy in the Middle East. Iran might be one of those that truly welcome deteriorating relations between the US and Russia with the hope of benefiting from a new East-West competition, e.g., by escaping new UN Security Council sanctions or avoiding a possible American preemptive strike.

While the neo-con hawks in Washington are pressing hard to isolate Iran in the hope that it will abandon its nuclear venture, the Russians are playing a bipartisan role and exploiting the escalating gloomy situation to reestablish their superpower position with respect to regional and global affairs. American entanglement in the Middle East, and especially in Iraq and Afghanistan, makes it quite difficult for Washington to deal with Moscow from a position of strength.

Russia's nuclear ties with Iran have instilled the confidence needed by the Islamic hardliners to use it as a shield for their nuclear ambitions. Yet the Kremlin seems attentive not to lose sight of its fragile relations with the US and the West. That is to say, despite President Vladimir Putin's recent trip to Tehran and the signing of a joint declaration with Iran regarding the Caspian Sea and other security matters, he may still go along with the 5+1 and agree on a long-awaited third Security Council resolution imposing further sanctions against the Islamic regime. China, as a permanent member of the Security Council, is in the same position.

As a clever leader and legitimate child of the KGB, Putin is well aware of the rules of the game regarding the global distribution of power. He seems to be taking advantage of the new situation to regain Russia's old superpower position as an equal partner with the United States.

Whether we can label the new emerging situation as a cold war is a simple question of definition. What is certain is that the world is experiencing an unprecedented challenge that, if not properly managed, could end up in disaster. Still, it is not certain that countries like Iran can achieve their ambitious nuclear objectives behind the smoke screen of these new conditions.- Published 22/11/2007 © bitterlemons-international.org

Ali Asghar Kazemi is professor of law and international relations in Tehran.